:



---------------------------------------------------------------
     © Copyright  , 2002
     WWW: http://www.vagrius.ru
     Date: 09 Aug 2002
---------------------------------------------------------------




           ,     
   .          , 
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        15      !
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       ,         
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,            [1]. 
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      .   
      , 
 15             
       .



        ,   
          
.       -       
       70 ,   
   ,          
  (.6).         1990        
  280  - ,     [2,3,4].
             , 
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   -  . ,
     ,     .    1988 ,
               
 (. 1,2).
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  ,      ,      
   [3,4].        
  ,           ,
  "  ".     
         
   . ,   "    
"...




       ,             
       1990 .   "  
   ". ,   ,
      200 ,      ,
       ,  
              .
,            ,
    ,     
.    -      
                  
 .           
   -     1988   "  
" -              
                                -
-   "".  ,    "
"...
        ,          
       ,
         
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   " ".
                  "",     
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  ", "    ",      
  ,   "".
             ,    
            , 
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.      80/90-           
(-   )       
  1-3  .    -        40
,    -   40  ,     20  
..         "   "     " "
    -   10-15 ,    50 .
   ()     2-3  . 
       100000  ( 11,12)!
  - ,   " ".  
  -  "        
   ,    - ...".    
      ...      
     ,     
            , 
  " ".
               ,   
       .      [2,4].
        ,    (86-91 .)   " "
      ,      
      ,  -    
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 -     ,  .   
      ",  , ,  ,
    ".    ,    
      ,             
    ,  .
             
 - ,   , , ,  
 (   -   )  ..  
  ,       1991-1993          :
   -  60 %, / - 20 %,  - 12  %,
  - 5 %,   - 3 % [5].
             " 
  "  -  .  ,    
,         ,     
  90-      ,        
  (!)   "".   1994  
        [8]      
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       ,            
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         "
".               "
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             "  
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,    .          
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   100%)    ,  
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            80- ... 
                   
 ,   " ".
                   
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  (  2-3 )       
          .  
    .
      1993-1994  .        ,  
       "  ".    
             (),
    (),    "    
  ",     ()  -    
     .
           ,
     ,     
  1990   1993/94 . (.5).  ,   1990  
         
   -  8 %     - 21.2 %,     1993 
        - 44.7  %   55.8 %,      
-  1993      
.
       1994        
           
        ,               
      [2,3,5].     ,  
,      -.
         ,      
.                 
.     ,    ,   
   ,      (), 
     ,     
  (   " " [8] - 50.9  % 
      "",  49.1  % 
      ""),          
.            
,       90- 
   [5,8].
               -  
(),    -  ,    
,      ,        
  .        
.
       ,    1993-1994  ,     
        (.5).       
        .
       ,          - 
                   ,
     .



                   1994
.                   
,       ,   .
" "  1994 .    ,  
  ,       ,   
   (.13,14).
      1994    .     
         ,  ,
  1991  1994       500 ,     
   900-1200 .  1994        
      5-10     (.  14-20),   
             
   20-40 %.           
  ,      ,      
,    .
            ""    
 ,          
 .    1991       
,   .    
,    ,    ..,   
 ,   (.24).   
     1993 ,      
 1994 .     (   1994    1995) 
      -       
        ,          ,
   .       ,  
,         ( ,  , 
)  (.11-20). ,          "
",        "  "  "  ".
    ,        
, -  -      1995 ,      
.               
("-", "", ""   ),      
    ,    
  ,             [4,8].
           
90-   ("",   "",   "",   "",    "
").           
  .            ,
    90-     .
                  -
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       ,          .  
      ""  ...   1991-1994
  (.13)     ""      
 ,     . 
              
,    .
      ,     ,     
   .
       ,   1995     ,      
      .     
           ,        
 ,       .
       ...




       1995/96 .          .
           
,        (.7). ,  
   1994/1995.       90- , 
  80-100  ,            
[2,5].
                    
.
             ,  
       ,      
    ,      -.
             
       -   (),  
""     -     ,                
-,         
, ,  ,  .
      1996       ,     
     .        
 ,          1995  
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  [4]  (.1-3,21).     , 1996 ,
         .
  ,  ,            
(1996-2001  .)        .   
 ,    " "  .
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[5].
         ,   
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    [5].
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    .    
  ,    ,    .     ,
     ,         
      -   .   
        ,        
.
                
   ""  (. 22-24). ,  
1994         ""       
,     1995       ,      1996   !   
., ., .   ., ., .  
.
           ,       1996    1998 
      ,       
                  ,
  ,       , 
 .
                  
         (.13).  
   ,        
,      .



      ,       1998  , 
  .
        ,     
    ,         
.
        ""    ()    (  2-3
  0.7-1.1         )
(.  14,18),          
    .       
              2000
,         300-600 .    
                (,
   ).
           . 
    -       
      -           3%
.            1998    
        
 .        
  .     -   1998    
1999   -        3.6   (.15)!   
          .  
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    ,  35%  ,     
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3%-12%  (     )    1998  .  
        
.
       ,  ,      
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 ,     .   1998   
 ,   ,   .  
        
    ,     
.



                
,     .
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  .      ,     
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-,   .
         1998   ,       
.     1998  2001      .
  ,        2000    
    .  ,             ,
     :   1999  -  11%,  2000
  -  11.9%,   2001    - 4.9%,      
  -  3.6%, 11.9%.  14.8%.   2001     (!)    
                  
  [2,4] (,        
   ,        
  ).         . 
                 
(.8-10,27).
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         ,          
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   ,    1   2002
.
       ,             
   ,            
.
         2001          
     ,     
.   2001 .    -   5%-10%
      .  ,  
   ...       
 10%       .   
 ""   "   ".  ,
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 ,     ,   
    ,      
.         1    2002   
       -- 20%.
              
         (.21).    
,  , , ,  ,  ,  
   .  -              
.           
,    . ,        16%
      7%,     19,6%
 5%,   - 18%  4 %,   - 16%  4%    (.21).  
-           1%  7% [4,8].
           ,        2002      
  60 % -80%.      .
                 :
" ,     , -
    ,    ..?".         
       
.




       2002        
.       .11,12    
      -      
  90-         I .  , ,
,        ,          ,
           
  " "  (titles inflation). ,
       ( 
)       (.12),       
    .     ,    
   1994/1995          
  .
         2002/2003  (. .1,2)      
.          - 2002   
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""  ... [5,8],       
 2002      .  , 
 .
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            ,  ""  ,
 . ,           ,  
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      -  2002  -      ,  
 ,   ,    .         
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  ,     "  " [11,13],  
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   1998  .        
        
 (.14).           
     360      7     
 .   ,     ""  (.22,23),
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(.1,2,11-18),  ,        
   "  ".  ,        ,
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 .




          , ,    
       2002/2003 .  ,    ,
.
               ,    ""  
       ,         ""
    2002   :
     $250 000 000 - $300 000 000   ;
       100 000 000 - 150 000 000 . ;
       15000 - 16 000 .
       "" -     , 
,    2003          25-30%
(.1,2).
          ,     
     20%.        2002   
   ,    .     
.    ,   ,    10%.   
   ,        .    1
 2002      " " -   
     .         
.             
  ,         ,    
   . ,  .






                   
.      -           
      . 
            
.
        .
       80-          80000    (
 -  - 50000)      1800 . ,
   7      [3].
       90-     35000  
  425 .,    3-      [2].
      2000      60000      470 .
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./)     7       [2]. ,      
      15      [4,8].
            ,      
     ,  ,      
 [4,8] (. 27).
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   [8,13].
                 :  ,
,  (  30%),   , ""  (23.9%),
  ,   (24.1%) ,    
(  16.4%),          (14.1%),  ,
,  (11.5%) ( .22,23).
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   (.26),        
  (       10% ).
         ,     
,         ""  [11]    20%
.   "   "    20-25 ,
        40  ,      2.5  
.
         [13]    (  34 %)    
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            " ".
        ?
            
   ,       ,     
  ,  .




          "".      -
1991-1994/1995 .          
  -         ,       
     .           
       50%,       
    80  %  (.  24).     -   
                      "",
"",  ""      1993       (!)  
  [5].     -   -
30%,   - 26%,  - 15%.    - .,
., ., ., .,    "  " [5,8] 
..                 
 ,        ,
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 (,  ,    ).



              " "    "
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      (1995-1998 .).
  ,      1994/1995   (.1,2,11,14),
  . ""   . 
,        ,      
      , 
    .
                 - 
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    ,  ""  
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220   ,    1997        1200 [5]! 
            "   "
(   ),   "  "  (  "")    ""
(""),           !   
       -     
 "  ".       90-    
  ""  [7].         
,  ,  ,             "
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  ,  ,        ,   
1993/1994             .
   ""      -  ,    
, - ., ., ., ., .
   [5].          - 
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 ""    -   ., .,
.,  ., .        
.
                     .
     ,      ,  
    .     
 (.24).   ,      "",
 ,  ,   "" 
[9,11,12].       "   
 ",   .




               
   -   1998       .
     "   ",   "
",  " " (mainstream).
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  ,       
        [11].             
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   ,               
,      90-. 
  ,        , 
          .       
                   
.
          (   -
 ..)               ,
,       .  .,
., -, ., .,   2-3     !
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    . , , 
-  .         5000 . 
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!
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  [8,11,13]  (.12,22,23).        ,
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,    ,   ,   .    5000-7000 .
     "-"  
(, , -).  ,     "
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"", "", "", "Ad Marginem",  " ", ""  .
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 .
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., ., .,  , ...
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         .




         -        
  ,      (e-), 
      (e-book),        
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      ...      
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 .
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    ,   14-  2000 , 
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             . 
       .
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 .           
e-book     -.    -    
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e-book,              .      
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..


       .
       ,           ,  
  .          . 
     ,       2001   
      (.5).    
    "",       ,
    ,     
[5].           50%
        80%   [2].   ,  
      15000  , 
      6000 ,   ,  
      ,    300  [5].    
        (.7),       
    .  2001   70%   
     ,     90% 
   [2,4,8].
                          
      , 
      (.  14-18).  ,        200
     ( 1.5-2 . ), 
.     [2,5].    ,
       , - 
.            ,
             .
       -.    
         ,      
  ,      
.
           .
                      
         .  
-             
,      .  ,  ,     
.   ,     
          ,          
.                     
    ,    
        
 [8].
               
       "-"  "  ",  
    .          
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  ,    .   
   "  "     ""   
 .        ""  
   ,     .
              ,  
           [8].
     .
              - .
         .               
-  (),         
2001     86%     95%     [8].  
   .      :
70%          ,         
    .              
      ,           
  (            10%).
               
 .        (   1998
)         200 %,    
    [8].
       ,     ,
,   ,    .   ( 1996 
2001 .)       . 
   2002            . 
 ,    1994/95 ,     ,
     ,    ,    
    ,      .    
     1998  (.1,2).
         ,        , 
    ,         .   
,        ,  
  -    ,         
     .
      2002       ,     .
            .
            (.7)       
           
      .    
     "   "   ,   
                   
.       
    .
                  :
"    ,       , 
  .       ,       
.     ,    ,  
  .          -      ...".
         
...















     ., ..  . ., 2001.
       .  . . 1992--2001.
      .  . ., 1971--1991.
     ...    . ., 2001.
      . .   "". 1994--2002.
       . . No 11, 2000 .
     " ". . No 1, 2000 .
       .     .  1994--2002  .  
 PRO  2001--2002 .
     ..   . "", 26.11.2001.
     ., ..   .    
.   " ".
     ..   .  "", No 1-2, 2002 .
     ..  .  " ". 12.2001.
       .  , 1997--2002 .

Last-modified: Fri, 09 Aug 2002 17:41:31 GMT
: